>>Sport has reached its Boston Consulting Group phase
I usually call it Sport by McKinsey. The excitement of sport filtered through the lens of very boring people.
Unofficial Rule: Beware expensive consultants using phrases like 'the Beautiful Game'.
See also:
From The Simpson's MoneyBart episode.
Bill James: 'I made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes'.
Prep notes for the podcast. Co-hosts Murray Barnett and Yannick Ramcke.
The setup
Player welfare measure or advertising product? Fox paid ~US$485m for English-language rights. 104 matches × 2 breaks = 832 additional 30-second spots. At ~US$300k a spot, that's a theoretical US$249.6m — before knockout-round premiums push upper projections past US$300m, with some reports reaching US$450–500m.
Why I care
This is a rights-financing mechanism wearing a medical badge. The tell is that it was a broadcaster choice, not a technical inevitability — Telemundo declined full-screen ads inside the breaks. Fox ran them, and on at least one occasion came back after play had restarted. ITV couldn't commercialise at all, blocked by Ofcom limits and the very late confirmation.
The narrative it challenges
That commercial innovations introduced under welfare cover can be withdrawn later. Once an asset refinances a rights fee, it gets priced into the next cycle. Precedent: split-screen during scrum sets in the Six Nations (Samsung/Virgin), the IPL's entire architecture.
Questions for the table
The setup
The US exit didn't destroy the economics. Defeat to Belgium drew ~30m on Fox, peaking at 36.8m — the largest US audience for a soccer telecast. Bosnia-Herzegovina had already averaged 26.4m. Portugal–Croatia, a neutral fixture, drew 11.1m.
Why I care
Portugal–Croatia is the interesting number. Anyone can rate a home team. 11.1m for a match with no American interest is either a genuine signal or an artefact of a fallow summer.
The narrative it challenges
"The World Cup created American soccer fans." The confounders stack up fast — timezone-friendly scheduling, America's appetite for anything badged a World Championship, diaspora audiences, and MLB as the only competition.
Questions for the table
The setup
Up to £1.6bn. ITV's linear channels and ITVX in; ITV Studios out. Combined, roughly 20% of UK in-home viewing. ITV reaches ~40m weekly; Sky Sports subs sit around 5m. Projected annual savings ~£200m. Regulatory approval outstanding.
Why I care
The cleanest attack yet on the reach/revenue split we keep insisting is a category error. Sky Sports averages ~1.5m per Premier League match; a selected ITV fixture pulls 3–4m+. One funnel, mass awareness to paid conversion. The 2019 men's Cricket World Cup final on Channel 4 — ~4.5m peak, via a Sky agreement — is the proof-of-concept.
The narrative it challenges
That subs growth was ever the plan. Sky's subscriber base is topping out; the prize here is ITVX and reach. That's an admission, not a strategy.
Questions for the table
The setup
Puck says yes. Projects that sold for US$7–8m now get offers near US$2m. Ampere data via C21Media: Netflix sports-documentary viewing fell from 642m hours (H2 2023) to 349m hours in the corresponding period two years later — down ~46%.
Why I care
The industry mistook a distinctive execution for a repeatable formula. Drive to Survive was never a sports doc — it was a character-led reality series that happened to contain F1. Everyone bought the access and skipped the storytelling engine.
The narrative it challenges
That access is the asset. Access isn't scarce any more. What still sells: globally recognised legends, nostalgia, completed stories with clear endings, scandal or inherent conflict, culturally significant moments, lower-cost specialist films, and anything directly supporting a live-rights investment. The middle has been squeezed out.
Questions for the table
The setup
A$5.3bn over seven years (2028–34) — the biggest sports broadcast deal in Australian history and the biggest single content investment full stop. 90% higher in annual cash than the current agreement. Foxtel to ~A$520–550m annually (from A$270m), Nine at A$160m (incl. A$15m contra), Sky NZ A$50m. 95% cash. DAZN takes international rights, with revenue-share and marketing tied to Foxtel. NRL is growing — Nine's coverage up 15% YoY, NZ audience nearly tripled in five years.
Why I care
The sell is that A$5.3bn is a rounding error against a distribution footprint 250× the Australian population. That only holds if the international subs materialise. This is DAZN's first big negotiation post-Foxtel, complicated by anti-siphoning rules that handed Nine leverage.
The narrative it challenges
That anyone here is buying growth. Nine and Foxtel are paying more to break even. The NRL extracted maximum value from buyers with no alternative.
Questions for the table
>>The 'TV cameras need a crowd' trope, as applied to women's golf.
>>What is the promise of System1 vs the reality?
>>England football's first foreign bogeyman
Antonio Rattin died on Saturday. His name is evocative for people my age, who are too young to remember 1966 but old enough for it to be a central part of childhood, the stories told so many times it feels like I watched it live. Rattin was sent off against England. Alf Ramsey famously called the Argentinian team 'animals'.
He feels like the first ‘them’ in England football’s storied history of creating cartoon foreigners to hate? I assume this tendency existed before 1966.
Also, I didn't know this:
The ECB has sacked Brendan McCullum, marking the official end of BazBall.
It's worth revisiting the start, because the appointment of McCullum was a response to something. It's a circle of life thing.
In We did a podcast with Mo Bobat...
He told a story about Sir Dave Brailsford doing a session at the ECB. It was about the role of style. Basically you want to be in the top right 'Brazil 1970' box. Bottom left is the sack (I showed this to Warren Gatland just before he got the boot at Wales, no pun intended. He very much saw the irony).
The other two are where the conversation is to be had.
In 2022, England beat New Zealand at Lords due to an astonishing innings from Jonny Bairstow. Peak Bazball. Mo Bobat sent me this message:
Another framework that I’ve often considered and used to discuss with Ed Smith when we considered selection strategy for our teams…
Winning takes care of everything etc.
But you have to be building, or appearing to build.
We'll take losing if it's moving forward.
See this piece from that time:
Unofficial Partner
>>'Today I Feel Rich'...FIFA's brand in the US
@demonflyingfox Gianni Infantino - Today I Feel Rich feat. Messi, Trump (Official Music Video) #worldcup2026 #messi #redcard #worldcupsong #aifilm
♬ Originalton - demonflyingfox
>>LIV for Horseracing
Alex Cottee sent me this. It's basically what we talked about for our business of horse racing (horse racing, horseracing, horse-racing?) night at the Big Belly Club last month.
Danny Epstien
It slavishly follows the McKinsey for Sport playbook. Makes sense in abstract, it's just real life seems to get in the way of many of these projects. Sports in general, and horse racing in particular are odd shaped things, the resistance to the new is profound and baked in. Getting the constituencies to align is the problem. As mentioned to Brant Dunshea on the night:
>>Where are all the cricket people?
Chris Smith
>>Hospo
Spent much of last week in corporate hospitality.
Wimbledon, twice and The Oval. Whisper, IMG and the ECB were the hosts. On Monday I was walked out of Centre Court with Sunil Patel, and we bumped in to Neil Chugani, who I didn't know, but have found out has one of the standout CVs in sport.
Friday was spent gossiping in the IMG hospitality lounge.
Chatted with Adam Kelly about our recent podcast.
We'd recorded it a few days earlier and he thought I'd been grumpy, which is code for asking some uncomfortable questions.
The truth is I did want to push Adam a bit. There are two stories about IMG, the one they want to tell and the one their competitors want to tell. Neither is the truth, but listening to a CEO doing talking points is dull af.
He got it, and enjoyed the to and fro. And the podcast is better as a result.
>>The Oval
Got stuck in a lift with Blaze and Tonk, which is the memoir title sorted.
White wine (me) with Juliet Slot, Beth Barrett Wild and Kate Hannon.
The game got tense. Nat Sciver Brunt played brilliantly to get England in to the final, to everyone's relief, apart from the South Africans obvs.
Beth B-W exits ECB on a massive high.
Walking back to Vauxhall tube, two blokes in Lauren Bell merch.
