Paddy Power doing their thing
Carlsberg's contribution was so good that I assumed it was AI. The wait for verification felt like a bit like the VAR pause.
>Picking winners
The LTA has got in to bed with Redrice Ventures.
Tom March
Redrice is best known as an early stage investor in Castore.
It's OPM seems to come largely from the British Business Bank.
Joy Laoun
>Too big to care
Lina Khan's phrase, mentioned by Doctorow on Jon Stewart.
@weeklyshowpodcast Is there hope for breaking up giant monopolies? Cory Doctorow, author of “The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI,” thinks we’re well positioned to take on these companies. New podcast out now!
♬ original sound - The Weekly Show Podcast
>'Very large shoes to fill'
Lovely piece by John Simpson, the outgoing home affairs editor of The Observer. It's about his relationship with journalism and is a raw and impactful bit of writing. Contains a nice WCW reference:
“It is difficult
to get the news from poems
Yet men die miserably every day
for lack
of what is found there.”
William Carlos Williams
from “Asphodel, That Greeny Flower”
Also, great gag in Private Eye:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DbWfCb0J_9p/?igsh=MWtodWxjbXZyM2tkeQ==
A much used phrase in our house, nicked from Finding Nemo.
Anyhow, the PR I praised in last week's newsletter hasn't replied to my email response. A week on from the original podcast pitch, she sent a follow up, asking if I'd seen the original, which felt a lot like an AI-generated follow up, and made me question the original email's provenance. I'll pursue this a stage further as the story is now less about the pitched idea and more about the process of comms and pitching.
Lots of names in this new FIFA project:
The FIFA FFE story poses a question. How or where to jump in? Martyn Ziegler broke the story in The Times, I think, at least that was the version of the story shared on WhatsApp.
The next 24-48 hours has been a fire hose of opinions, explainers and what ifs. The second bounce will be an attempt to build the pro-Infantino argument. A sort of 'what's really going on here?' type piece, which dismisses 'Linkedin chatter' and takes the high ground of the obvious expert.
Then what? Cushnan went with the questions arising.
Ricardo Fort with a similar vibe aimed at the FIFA sponsors
George Pyne on CNBC made the comparison that this generation of new sports entertainment properties are the market's equivalent of VC funding. High risk moonshots and most will fail. 'Not all of them can be the UFC'.
Guest: Dan Jamieson, CEO, Icons | Host: Richard Gillis | Series: Unofficial Partner
A single Bellingham product sits on top of a layered set of rights: the player (exclusive deal via a tight, family-run team), the club (Real Madrid takes a cut on image rights — their argument: the halo of the shirt inflates his global value), and the tournament (FIFA / Champions League licences).
>>Better than random
Economists prediction hit rate.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZN81Ac1Y8/
>>Golf coast pricing
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZN81AEbJn/
>>Sport has reached its Boston Consulting Group phase
I usually call it Sport by McKinsey. The excitement of sport filtered through the lens of very boring people.
Unofficial Rule: Beware expensive consultants using phrases like 'the Beautiful Game'.
See also:
From The Simpson's MoneyBart episode.
Bill James: 'I made baseball as much fun as doing your taxes'.
Prep notes for the podcast. Co-hosts Murray Barnett and Yannick Ramcke.
The setup
Player welfare measure or advertising product? Fox paid ~US$485m for English-language rights. 104 matches × 2 breaks = 832 additional 30-second spots. At ~US$300k a spot, that's a theoretical US$249.6m — before knockout-round premiums push upper projections past US$300m, with some reports reaching US$450–500m.
Why I care
This is a rights-financing mechanism wearing a medical badge. The tell is that it was a broadcaster choice, not a technical inevitability — Telemundo declined full-screen ads inside the breaks. Fox ran them, and on at least one occasion came back after play had restarted. ITV couldn't commercialise at all, blocked by Ofcom limits and the very late confirmation.
The narrative it challenges
That commercial innovations introduced under welfare cover can be withdrawn later. Once an asset refinances a rights fee, it gets priced into the next cycle. Precedent: split-screen during scrum sets in the Six Nations (Samsung/Virgin), the IPL's entire architecture.
Questions for the table
The setup
The US exit didn't destroy the economics. Defeat to Belgium drew ~30m on Fox, peaking at 36.8m — the largest US audience for a soccer telecast. Bosnia-Herzegovina had already averaged 26.4m. Portugal–Croatia, a neutral fixture, drew 11.1m.
Why I care
Portugal–Croatia is the interesting number. Anyone can rate a home team. 11.1m for a match with no American interest is either a genuine signal or an artefact of a fallow summer.
The narrative it challenges
"The World Cup created American soccer fans." The confounders stack up fast — timezone-friendly scheduling, America's appetite for anything badged a World Championship, diaspora audiences, and MLB as the only competition.
Questions for the table
The setup
Up to £1.6bn. ITV's linear channels and ITVX in; ITV Studios out. Combined, roughly 20% of UK in-home viewing. ITV reaches ~40m weekly; Sky Sports subs sit around 5m. Projected annual savings ~£200m. Regulatory approval outstanding.
Why I care
The cleanest attack yet on the reach/revenue split we keep insisting is a category error. Sky Sports averages ~1.5m per Premier League match; a selected ITV fixture pulls 3–4m+. One funnel, mass awareness to paid conversion. The 2019 men's Cricket World Cup final on Channel 4 — ~4.5m peak, via a Sky agreement — is the proof-of-concept.
The narrative it challenges
That subs growth was ever the plan. Sky's subscriber base is topping out; the prize here is ITVX and reach. That's an admission, not a strategy.
Questions for the table
The setup
Puck says yes. Projects that sold for US$7–8m now get offers near US$2m. Ampere data via C21Media: Netflix sports-documentary viewing fell from 642m hours (H2 2023) to 349m hours in the corresponding period two years later — down ~46%.
Why I care
The industry mistook a distinctive execution for a repeatable formula. Drive to Survive was never a sports doc — it was a character-led reality series that happened to contain F1. Everyone bought the access and skipped the storytelling engine.
The narrative it challenges
That access is the asset. Access isn't scarce any more. What still sells: globally recognised legends, nostalgia, completed stories with clear endings, scandal or inherent conflict, culturally significant moments, lower-cost specialist films, and anything directly supporting a live-rights investment. The middle has been squeezed out.
Questions for the table
The setup
A$5.3bn over seven years (2028–34) — the biggest sports broadcast deal in Australian history and the biggest single content investment full stop. 90% higher in annual cash than the current agreement. Foxtel to ~A$520–550m annually (from A$270m), Nine at A$160m (incl. A$15m contra), Sky NZ A$50m. 95% cash. DAZN takes international rights, with revenue-share and marketing tied to Foxtel. NRL is growing — Nine's coverage up 15% YoY, NZ audience nearly tripled in five years.
Why I care
The sell is that A$5.3bn is a rounding error against a distribution footprint 250× the Australian population. That only holds if the international subs materialise. This is DAZN's first big negotiation post-Foxtel, complicated by anti-siphoning rules that handed Nine leverage.
The narrative it challenges
That anyone here is buying growth. Nine and Foxtel are paying more to break even. The NRL extracted maximum value from buyers with no alternative.
Questions for the table
